Causal Thinking
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Chapter 3 - Experiential Growth Method®
Previous page: Thinking Fast and Slow - Causal Thinking - Next page: Model Thinking
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Welcome to the Causal Thinking (science of cause and effect) page
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Levels of causation
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- Association
- Detecting regularities in our environment (patterns)
- Intervention
- Predicting the effect(s) of deliberate alterations of the environment and choosing among these alterations to produce a desired outcome (relevancy)
- Counterfactuals
- A “theory” of why it works and what to do when it doesn’t (principles)
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Types of junctions
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Three junctions
- Mediator (chain),
- Confounder (fork),
- and Collider (magnet)
are the steps from patterns to principles.
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Through them we can see the secrets of the causal process we observe. Each junction stands for a distinct pattern of causal flow and leaves its mark in the form of conditional dependence and independence. All this is very important when considering the relationships between the Actions fields.
| Content sources |
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| The Book of Why - J. Pearl & D. Mackenzie - Basic Books - 2018 |
| Een wereld vol patronen - R. Bods - Prometheus - 2019 |
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