Demographics
Chapter 2 - Society
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Welcome to the Demographics page
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Demography (from Ancient Greek δῆμος (dêmos) 'people, society' and -γραφία (-graphía) 'writing, drawing, description') is the statistical study of human populations: their size, composition (e.g., ethnic group, age), and how they change through the interplay of fertility (births), mortality (deaths), and migration.
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Core ideas
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The current population
The size of a population is the amount of the current population,
- plus births and immigration,
- minus deaths and emigration.
Population size explains why well-being and health, on the one hand, and migration, on the other, are such sensitive issues. This is even more so because a healthy, combative population contributes to a country's (economic) power and rulers.
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The fertility rate
The fertility rate required to maintain a population is often called the replacement rate. This refers to the level of fertility required for a generation to be the same size as the previous generation. In most developed countries, the replacement rate is about 2.1 children per woman over her reproductive period.
This number is higher than two children per woman because it considers factors such as infant mortality, and not all women have children. If the replacement rate is below 2.1, the population may shrink over time unless compensated by immigration.
In developing countries with higher infant mortality, the replacement rate may be higher to maintain the population. The replacement rate generally depends on life expectancy, health care, social and economic conditions, and cultural norms regarding family size.
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Death rate
Due to the increasing aging of the population, we expect more and more deaths over the years.
Covid-19
We see a sharp increase in the standardised mortality rate in 2020 compared to previous years, for both men and women. This trend was entirely attributable to COVID-19 as the standardised mortality rates in 2020 are also in line with the trend expected based on other years if we do not take COVID-19 deaths into account. This is an indication that Covid mortality did not so much replace other causes by accelerating a mortality process but was an additional threat to public health.
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Life expectancy
Life expectancy indicates the expected age estimated for a human being at birth. This number of years is determined mainly by the current mortality rates. However, since these data only consider the past, additional estimates are included to determine the future age due to external influences. These can be environmental factors as well as developments in health care. Therefore, the average life expectancy is not a measured value but a prognosis for the future.
As life expectancy steadily increases in most countries, the current average age of death is slightly lower than expected. Depending on the country, it is between two and five years lower.
Above all, life expectancy results from a person's or a population group's living conditions. Essential factors are medical care, balanced nutrition, and drinking water supply. Regionally occurring diseases such as malaria also affect the country's comparison. These factors are significantly influenced by political factors, which is why life expectancy often derives from a country's standard of living.
The difference between men and women
In most countries, women are four to eight years older than men. According to many scientists, this is not a purely biological difference. Instead, it is also attributed to different behaviours. According to this view, men are less careful about their bodies than women. Smokers and alcohol consumers are more common among men. Also, physical stress with simultaneous aversions to medical treatment and health precautions are responsible for this. Indeed, there is also an additional genetic reason for women's longer lives.
Influence of the mortality rate of children
The mortality rate of children has a significant impact on life expectancy. Both in the Middle Ages and in developing countries today, the death rate of children at birth or in the first few years of life is disproportionately high. These factors are already included in the average life expectancy. If one subtracts the proportion of children already deceased after the first years of living, the "average" is maintained, but the life expectancy of the rest increases.
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Migration
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| Hein de Haas - 22 mythen over migratie doorprikt - Spectrum |
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The hard facts and sober observations are often opposed to the assumptions that dominate public debate:
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Do you want to know more?
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European situation
| Demography of Europe – 2024 edition |
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| https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/interactive-publications/demography-2024 |
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World situation
| Our World in Data |
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| https://ourworldindata.org/population-growth |
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