Demographics
Chapter 2 - Society
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Welcome to the Demographics page
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Demography (from Ancient Greek δῆμος (dêmos) 'people, society' and -γραφία (-graphía) 'writing, drawing, description') is the statistical study of human populations: their size, composition (e.g., ethnic group, age), and how they change through the interplay of fertility (births), mortality (deaths), and migration.
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Core ideas
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The current population
The size of a population is the amount of the current population,
- plus births and immigration,
- minus deaths and emigration.
Population size explains why well-being and health, on the one hand, and migration, on the other, are such sensitive issues. This is even more so because a healthy, combative population contributes to a country's (economic) power and rulers.
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The fertility rate
The fertility rate required to maintain a population is often called the replacement rate. This refers to the level of fertility required for a generation to be the same size as the previous generation. In most developed countries, the replacement rate is about 2.1 children per woman over her reproductive period.
This number is higher than two children per woman because it considers factors such as infant mortality, and not all women have children. If the replacement rate is below 2.1, the population may shrink over time unless compensated by immigration.
In developing countries with higher infant mortality, the replacement rate may be higher to maintain the population. The replacement rate generally depends on life expectancy, health care, social and economic conditions, and cultural norms regarding family size.
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Death rate
Due to the increasing aging of the population, we expect more and more deaths over the years.
Covid-19
We see a sharp increase in the standardised mortality rate in 2020 compared to previous years, for both men and women. This trend was entirely attributable to COVID-19 as the standardised mortality rates in 2020 are also in line with the trend expected based on other years if we do not take COVID-19 deaths into account. This is an indication that Covid mortality did not so much replace other causes by accelerating a mortality process but was an additional threat to public health.
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Migration
The hard facts and sober observations are often opposed to the assumptions that dominate public debate:
- Until the 1950s (decolonisation), Europe was an emigration region. Now, it has become an immigration region
- For centuries and on a global scale, migration has been around 3% (people living in a country where they were not born). One-tenth of these (0.3%) are refugees
- Nine out of ten Africans come to Europe legally
- Immigrants tend to engage in less criminal behaviour than non-migrants
- The main cause of migration is the demand for labour in industrialised countries. We need workers, not least because of the ageing population. That is the elephant in the room
- A paradox that can count is that border restrictions lead to more immigration. Previously, labour migration went smoothly. Migrants came to work and returned home outside the working season. From the moment a visa was required, they no longer dared to return temporarily to their country of origin for fear of not being able to return to the country where they found work
- Another paradox: migration costs money. Economic opportunities and better education therefore increase people's capacities and aspirations to migrate
| Content source |
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| Hein de Haas - 22 mythen over migratie doorprikt - Spectrum |
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Do you want to know more?
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European situation
| Demography of Europe – 2024 edition |
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| https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/interactive-publications/demography-2024 |
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World situation
| Our World in Data |
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| https://ourworldindata.org/population-growth |
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