On strategy
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Strategy is looking ahead
Most people think history is about the past, preserving old things and habits. But fundamentally, history is about your future.
The value of history is to help you live more prosperously, vibrantly, inclusively, and tolerantly in the present and to help you visualize your future. In this time of division, fear, and isolation, we need to dream better dreams for the future.
Strategy
The best definition I know of strategy is still that of Simonne Vermeylen:
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Strategy is making those decisions that make future decisions possible.
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Of course, that also means that decisions can be made that make future decisions impossible. They can close doors.
What we can say with certainty is that homo economicus, the omniscient and independent decision maker, does not exist. We open and close doors consciously and unconsciously. We make decisions based on the context in which we live.
The present determines our position, but indeed also the past because the past sets us at the point where we are now, with closed and opened doors.
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It starts in 1632
John Locke
John Locke was born in Wrington near Bristol, England, on August 29, 1632.
Locke read Descartes during his studies and saw the great French philosopher as a viable alternative to the Aristotelianism he had learned at Oxford. In his work An Essay Concerning Human Understanding, he adopted Descartes' ideas as part of his thinking. According to Locke, every person is born as a "tabula rasa" or a blank slate. A person starts with an empty 'mind', and experiences and impressions fill the head.
He makes the unwritten natural law the foundation of formal constitutional law and the social contract. This forms the basis of his plea for popular sovereignty, the idea that the monarch or government must reflect the people's will.
"We the People," the opening words of the preamble to the U.S. Constitution, emphasize the centrality of popular consent. They were heavily influenced by John Locke's works, which reached America.
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The core elements of Locke's philosophy are:
- Separation of powers
- Protection of property (including life, liberty and estate)
- Importance of impartial justice
Locke's ideas about natural rights, the social contract, the separation of powers, and the role of government resonate strongly with the founders of the first constitution. They designed a government dedicated to protecting and preserving individual liberties.
His defence of religious tolerance also significantly influenced the drafters of the American Constitution. Locke's 'Letter Concerning Toleration' advocates the separation of church and state and claims that the government may not impose religious practices or dictate beliefs.
This makes the United States a haven for people with different (religious) beliefs, emphasizing the principle that (religious) beliefs must be able to flourish free from government interference.
All this paves the way for economic liberal thinking.
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Adam Smith is for economic liberalism, which John Locke did for political liberalism, namely building the philosophical foundations on which others will build a liberal tradition. The broad appeal of Smith's economic theories of free trade, division of labour, and the principle of individual initiative help to obscure a great deal of political liberalism in his work. Far from being a laissez-faire doctrinaire, Adam Smith aims to show that a liberal policy can enjoy the benefits of individual liberty and a free market economy.
Adam Smith's assumptions are:
- Economic growth depends on capital accumulation
- Economy works best through the interaction of selfish individuals
- Freedom implies free competition, free movement, free movement of capital, and freedom from government intervention
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John Stuart Mill, philosopher, economist, journalist, political writer, social reformer and Liberal Member of Parliament, is one of the most famous figures in the pantheon of liberal theorists and the greatest Victorian liberal thinkers. A key aspect of his new political thought is his concern to combine the democratic demands of government accountability with a role for an elite of educated individuals, independent intellectuals and public moralists like himself.
John Stuart Mills assumptions are:
- Society is responsible for protecting its citizens, but should not interfere with the rest
- True freedom is the right to take care of yourself
- The basis of economics is competition
- Workers can participate in the capital of factories
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For Europe this translates into a Calvinist way of life that results in the Golden 17th century:
- Since no one has certainty about his salvation and personal actions are not sufficient for this, the Christian needs strict fidelity to the creed and the dogmas
- A strong brake on free thinking and free research is desirable for this
- The individual bears responsibility for the way in which he deals with the inscrutability of the decree of God
- No government can decide on this in place of the citizen
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It started again in 1632
Baruch Spinoza
Baruch Spinoza was born in Amsterdam on 24 November 1632.
Spinoza is a perceptive observer who realises that man is not rational. Although he longs for a better world, he is very aware that a 'manageable society' is an illusion.
At an early stage, he resists the idea of God's election of the Jewish people, the divine origin of the Bible, and the image that God would be a human form. He resists fear and powerlessness but also permanent struggle and rivalry. It does matter to society what your motives are, whether you have good or bad intentions.
He writes a magnum opus on Ethics and treatises on politics. His texts are pleasantly modern. Below, you will find some core ideas:
Context
- Man is part of nature. This is incompatible with an aristocratic electness
Freedom
- When people can do what they are capable of, they can come into their power. This is necessary for science, trade and prosperity
Creativity
- No one can determine in advance what creativity is capable of
Strength & Power
- ‘Potentia’ is the strength every human being possesses. ‘Potestas’ is the power that results from the political system. It is a power that can hold others in its grip
Superstition
- Superstition arises when people no longer see the relationships that determine reality and therefore stray from science
Science
- Science and philosophy provide valid statements of truth, the (holy) scripture is not a source of scientific knowledge
- He asks himself whether you can claim the right in a democratic system not to have to come into contact with certain critical scientific content
Politics
- The aim of politics is not to rule over people and to keep them under control and subordinate with fear, but on the contrary to free them so that they can express themselves without harming themselves and others
- Democracy is the best form because it allows the ‘potentia’ of every citizen to be developed. Tyranny goes against this. The power of the ruler is great, but the strength of the citizens is thwarted
Moral awareness
- Moral life is not a lonely task. Fellow human beings are important to everyone. Only together with others can a person fully develop
- People influence each other, but from others one accepts only what one wants oneself
Socio-economic issues
- The cause of decay is socio-economic disputes in the form of contempt of the rich for the poor. The subsequent hatred of the poor, their hope for change that does not come and the lack of community spirit only fuels this
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Strategy is looking ahead
Two visions that originated in the same era
In Locke, faith and politics remain intertwined. American politicians are (then and now) assumed to be religious.
Spinoza thinks from a different framework. He is in favor of embracing all views, including non-religious, scientific, political, and philosophical ones. According to him, a state religion has negative psychological consequences. Representatives of religion derive too much power from the 'legal' rightness of faith. But no person can completely relinquish their control of judgment.
We have inherited the neoliberal ideology of that time, in particular. This is tough because it will soon be 400 years old.
The world is faced with choices today. The analysis of the Club of Rome, the geopolitical situation, and climate change are not choices but symptoms. The choices are yours.
We will all have to make choices, including in the economic field. Every company and every entrepreneur will have to make choices for themselves.
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Strategic principles
When I was younger, I was a conjurer. It taught me an important lesson. People are excellent pattern seekers. We spontaneously look for patterns in what we see, hear, feel, in other words, experience. But we have no eye for the principles that cause these patterns. Conjurors make clever use of this for entertainment.
- Conjurors and magicians are the artists of science. Conjurors hide the principles behind the patterns, magicians believe in the patterns
- Science provides insight into the principles that can become economic reality
- Politics determines the frameworks within which these principles may be implemented
- The economy implements these principles within the community
- The community, its culture and art produce conjurors and magicians
Below, I describe three principles (interests, values and goals) that shed light on your strategy.
The first two (interests and values) are intertwined. Even though they are the least ‘practical’, they are still the guiding principles when push comes to shove (regarding your goals).
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Interests
Steven Fry beautifully describes here how our energy consumption controls our entire being.
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Fire
I found this incredible and discovered it when I was writing about the beginning of humanity: in Greek mythology, Prometheus—the Titan—makes us out of clay because Zeus is bored. He is the supreme god and has already done everything. He has defeated the Titans and made the world perfect. What else can he do every day?
He wants pets, little creatures to play with, who will worship him, love him, and obey him. He orders Prometheus to make us, the people. Zeus says, "Do what you want." They can travel all over the world, but there is one thing they are not allowed to have: fire.
By fire, Zeus really means fire, which offers us the technology to make iron and bronze, cook, and make small pots. But he also means the divine spark, the fire that makes the gods gods, that makes us creative. Man possesses this spark because Prometheus disobeyed and gave us that spark.
Zeus was furious because, with that spark, humankind would no longer need gods. Then, they would no longer worship him but be autonomous without them.
Stephen Fry – Leuven – March 28th 2025
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Values
Five value-driven challenges for the near future
The first is financial. Whenever we have had economic problems in the past, instead of tightening our belts, we have always turned on the tap of credit creation and central bank guarantees. The entire world has 350 to 400% debt compared to GDP. We continue to create more and more monetary claims that people think they own as money. The ecological and energetic truth is that they require energy and materials to become reality.
The second is the movement our world is making from a globalised to a multipolar world: Europe, the US, China, Russia, the BRICS countries, Africa, … . How will the raw material pie be divided? Who will pull the monetary and military sheets? Who will be able to go where?
The third is the just-in-time supply chain. Everything you have in your home has already been around the world. Food is produced an average of 2000 km from your plate. We have an incredibly efficient but unfortunately non-resilient system for delivering essential goods and services to people worldwide based on cheap oil, credit and a supposed global peace.
The fourth is the social contract and the trust in cooperation and interaction with the people around you. The power of people lies in their collaboration. Polarisation creates stress in society and makes social contracts difficult. In the past, every village had its village idiot. The community knew him and made sure he was contained. Now, any idiot can use the megaphone of social media to undermine the social cohesion that used to be a warm blanket around him.
The fifth is the imminent total overshoot of the Earth’s carrying capacity. What will we do to manage the Global Commons, such as the atmosphere and oceans, within safe planetary boundaries? Overusing the Global Commons by some and privatising resources endangers their future availability to all. Transgressing planetary boundaries—including climate, biodiversity, and biogeochemical flows—must be avoided to ensure a safe space for humanity.
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Goals
Making decisions about your strategy
When you choose, you are selecting based on purely personal, unconscious motives. That is what most of us do when we think we are deciding. But a decision is something entirely different. A decision results from a process that considers many possible outcomes; it is the opposite of choosing.
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Complexity
Let me start with the most used concept of the last years: complexity.
What is the difference between complicated and complex?
- Complicated has a Latin origin: folding. Something that can be folded can be unfolded and then folded back. Think of a difficult origami figure. It simply unfolds back into a sheet of paper
- Complex has a Greek origin that means entanglement. An entangled thing that is taken apart can never be entangled again in the same way
In a complex situation, the interactions are the most important. When interactions evolve favourably, you can give them energy (resources). Conversely, when the interactions are negative, you can reduce your energy on them.
The cookbook metaphor fits in here. A cookbook user follows the recipe, always using the same ingredients and equipment in the same order. A chef is able to combine different ingredients for the dish. He can replace one thing with another in the composition of the dish, and he can adapt the dish to his own context.
What is the difference between systems thinking and complexity thinking?
- Systems thinking tends to define ultimate goals and try to close the gap with them. As a result, many opportunities in the present are missed
- With complexity thinking, you try to describe the present as accurately as possible and then start your strategy with a general sense of direction
Of course, different people perceive the same system differently. What is seen as complex by one person can be clear to another.
However, this does not justify ultra-relativism. Different perspectives do not rule out that a system or situation cannot be methodically investigated and defined. People's perceptions can certainly be tested against this. Whether something is solid, liquid or gaseous can be scientifically determined independently of someone's perceptions.
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First, describing the Present
The 3A principles you can use to describe your current situation are:
Agency
- Who or what can make decisions or has the freedom to act (to what extent)?
The Kodak story is a classic example. The company’s top executives ignored its engineers, who had developed a prototype digital camera, because it would disrupt Kodak’s then-lucrative film business.
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Affordance
- What opportunities are being offered or held back by the ecosystem of which your company is a part?
The Cambridge Institute for Sustainability Leadership (CISL) puts it this way:
A global industrial and economic transition is underway, restructuring the way economies produce and create value. This shift is being driven by non-negotiable forces: the laws of nature and the limits of planetary carrying capacity.
The direction is clear. The challenge is the pace of change.
Without conscious action to accelerate the transition, the alternative is unmanaged decline. Strategic action can change this trajectory. Those who act now gain a decisive early-mover advantage, set future norms, and influence policy direction and capital flows.
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Assemblage (the totality of the previous two)
- What are the (cultural) patterns in your organization that constrain or stimulate behaviour?
On the one hand, the level of competence to act of your people can make a clear difference. On the other hand, your board can do something that a middle manager cannot do, that a front-desk employee cannot do, etc. Different parts of your organization may be in various situations and have different trajectories to follow.
But be careful when you surround yourself with people who (re)tell your stories to counteract this. What happens is that these stories start to pile up. They acquire a material reality, which can create downward causality.
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Second, choosing a direction
We all know the metaphor of the North Star. I want to place another metaphor next to it. The arrow that points the way to Brussels never goes to Brussels itself. What’s more. If you follow the arrow, let’s say, in a northeast direction, you will probably find an arrow to Brussels that points you east, only to find one that points west …
This means that your strategic path does not always follow the direction that your goal initially indicates. You need this flexibility without losing sight of the general direction.
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So here we are, what to do now?
The core of what you should do now is very simple:
- You start by determining what is not possible
- Then, within this constraint, you identify your constructors that can perform tasks repeatedly and consistently
Constructors are “your decisions that make future decisions possible”, shaping your future reality. We are not talking about operational tasks here, but about cognitive activation, processes and cultures.
You can mold your constructors according to a neoliberal model or you can view them through Spinoza’s lens.
We are at a crossroads together. May I ask you to read the bullet point again? And then decide.
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Sources
- Eleanor Stratton - Locke’s Influence on the Constitution - in Constitutional Topics - 2024
- Ethica van Spinoza - vertaald door D. Burger
- Door Spinoza’s lens – Tinneke Beeckman
- Stephen Fry
- Nate Hagens
- Cynefin Co
- Cambridge Institute for Sustainability Leadership (CISL)
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