Strategic scenarios
Chapter 4 - Corporate futuring
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Welcome to the Strategic scenarios page
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This page is under construction.
The aim of scenarios is to contribute to maximising the chances of good performance by supporting individual and collective thinking that leads to strategic decisions, supporting the ability to formulate a dignified, meaningful, and identity-defining answer to the organisation's 'why?' question.
An individual is quickly dismissed as a prophet of doom or followed as a saviour; both are terrifying. Moreover, the organisation's recognition and reaction time are reduced most when as many people as possible are involved in observing and implementing the response to the future. The art of anticipating consists of starting from two 'abilities':
- The ability to inspire people, to give them the feeling that it is good to belong to the group, experiencing value(s) full of adventure, to contribute. This means 'eagerly looking forward to, and deriving so much energy from it that the broader and more profound ability is anchored in the organisation. Because if it has to depend on one great leader, what if he falls?
- The ability to recognise the dynamics and complexity of the environment and also to resist the temptation to gamble with that dynamics and complexity, giving yourself and others false security. This requires daring to think the unthinkable and to face the fear of an unexpectedly different future now, rather than sticking to the belief that there is no escape. Anticipating means anticipating what has not yet happened and what may never happen, but what would be overwhelming if it did - and devising possible actions for it. This ability, is best invested as deeply and broadly as possible in the organisation.
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Core ideas
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Pitfalls of our (individual) thinking
- Intelligent anticipation requires considerable self-knowledge.
- Doubt, not knowing, and curiosity aren't highly regarded in many management circles; knowing and projecting certainty are much more highly regarded there. The same goes for decisiveness and action. These, too, often score higher than reflection and contemplation.
- Long before a concrete thought forms in our minds about what's happening in or around us, we already have all sorts of feelings about it, based on our instincts and intuitions. Your body has already formed its opinion long before your mind has even begun to formulate one. We think primarily with or through our bodies. This stems from the absolute priority our brains give to anticipating through our bodies.
- Emotions and feelings are an integral part of your thought patterns. To become a thought pattern (that is, stored in our long-term memory), there must be an emotional anchoring. Otherwise, the experience will be forgotten over time and will no longer form part of our fixed repertoire of thought patterns.
- Your most dominant thinking pattern creates the strongest physical connections in your brain; they are the highways of our beliefs and behaviours.
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The trick is to ensure that our rational thinking doesn't become too late. This requires an attitude of "healthy doubt" about our feelings and thoughts and "positive curiosity" about alternatives.
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Pitfalls of not anticipating
- Anticipating effectively requires personal commitment and perseverance.
- You can't just do it, because you have to learn it; you can't dismiss it quickly, because it requires reflection; nor can you do it occasionally, because evolving insights and new developments require ongoing research.
- Sensible anticipation takes time, when most people don't yet see the need for it, or precisely at a (so late) moment when they want to take immediate action.
- This investment of time guarantees a generous return, but it takes time and requires self-control.
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