Sustainable societal future
Chapter 2 - Society
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Welcome to the Sustainable societal future page
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The value of imagination
With complex and systemic challenges, governments and societies increasingly seek strategic foresight approaches to support governance and enable public participation in exploring possible futures. Foresight methods can assist in a variety of ways, such as scanning for emerging trends, innovations, and risks, making sense of megatrends and their implications, drawing out tacit values and assumptions about the future, helping find common ground among participants and building shared visions, and developing a shared understanding of the barriers and opportunities ahead.
Qualitative scenarios or imaginaries (i.e. plausible, well-researched and imaginative descriptions of possible and plausible futures) can play a liberating role in opening up new ways of thinking about how the future could develop. As Jim Dator, a leading foresight researcher, has noted, ‘We know from years of working in the futures field that “the future” that most people have in mind when they are first asked to think about the future usually is that “whatever is happening now will continue”.’ Imaginaries can help people to detach from seeing the present as fixed and recognise that rapid and far-reaching change might be imminent and could open pathways to diverse futures.
A sustainable society could also take very different forms, depending in part on society’s response to unexpected disruption, ranging from geopolitical and economic shocks to the impacts of disruptive innovations. The development of imaginaries reassures us that societies can navigate these uncertainties and cope with challenges like climate change and population ageing because they expand the range of available ideas and options.
| Content source |
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| Imagining sustainable futures for Europe - EEA |
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Core ideas
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Sustainability
Sustainable development originated in the 17th and 18th centuries, with early ideas of sustainable forest management developed by figures like John Evelyn and Hans Carl von Carlowitz. These concepts evolved into the science of forestry, influencing environmental pioneers such as Gifford Pinchot and Aldo Leopold. The modern understanding of sustainability emerged in the 1960s, driven by works like Rachel Carson's Silent Spring and Kenneth Boulding's The Economics of the Coming Spaceship Earth, highlighting the relationship between economic growth and environmental degradation. The 1972 Limits to Growth report and the first sustainable development hearings in 1975 underscored the need for a global equilibrium. By the 1980s, sustainable development became a global priority with the International Union for Conservation of Nature's strategy and the UN's World Charter for Nature. The 1992 Rio Earth Summit further established sustainability as a cornerstone of international policy, introducing Agenda 21 to integrate environmental, economic, and social goals. Since then, sustainable development has evolved to emphasize inclusive growth, global collaboration, and public participation in decision-making.
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Our Common Future
The Brundtland Commission, formerly the World Commission on Environment and Development, was a sub-organisation of the United Nations (UN) that aimed to unite countries in pursuit of sustainable development. It was founded in 1983.
The Brundtland Commission published Our Common Future and is credited with crafting the most prevalent definition of sustainability:
"Sustainable development is development that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs"
3 Focus points
- Economic growth
Reinforcing the importance of finding methods to generate economic growth without hurting the environment
- Environmental protection
The focus on environmental protection transpired globally, including a great deal of investment in renewable energy power capacity
- Social equality and equity
The growing gap between incomes of the rich and poor is evident throughout the world with the incomes of the richer households increasing relative to the incomes of middle- or lower-class households.
| Content Sourse |
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| Wikipedia |
| https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brundtland_Commission |
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Are there Limits to Growth?
Robert Solow, the American economist and Nobel laureate whose work on the theory of economic growth culminated in the exogenous growth model named after him and who had been a vocal critic of Limits To Growth, said in 2009 that "thirty years later, the situation may have changed... it will probably be more important in the future to deal intellectually, quantitatively, as well as practically, with the mutual interdependence of economic growth, natural resource availability, and environmental constraints".
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What science can tell you
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| Environmental Research Letters |
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| Quantifying the potential for climate change mitigation of consumption options - Diana Ivanova, John Barrett, Dominik Wiedenhofer, Biljana Macura, Max Callaghan and Felix Creutzig - Published 20 August 2020 |
| 1. Live Car-Free: Reduces emissions on average 2.04 tonnes CO₂e/year.
2. Switch to a Battery Electric Vehicle: Reduces emissions on average 1.95 tonnes CO₂e/year. 3. Avoid Long-Distance Flights: Reduces emissions on average 1.68 tonnes CO₂e/year. 4. Adopt a Vegan Diet: Reduces emissions on average 0.82 tonnes CO₂e/year. 5. Install Renewable Energy-Based Heating: Reduces emissions on average 1.60 tonnes CO₂e/year. 6. Implement Comprehensive Home Refurbishment: Reduces emissions on average 0.895 tonnes CO₂e/year. 7. Purchase Green Energy: Reduces emissions on average 0.37 tonnes CO₂e/year. 8. Use Public Transportation: Reduces emissions on average 0.98 tonnes CO₂e/year. 9. Limit Consumption of Animal-Based Products: Reduces emissions on average 0.35 tonnes CO₂e/year. 10. Practice Energy Conservation at Home: Reduces emissions on average 0.21 tonnes CO₂e/year. |
| https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ab8589 |
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| Nature |
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| Determinants of behaviour and their efficacy as targets of behavioural change interventions - Dolores Albarracin - Nature Reviews Psychology - Review Article - 03 May 2024 |
| Unprecedented social, environmental, political and economic challenges — such as pandemics and epidemics, environmental degradation and community violence — require taking stock of how to promote behaviours that benefit individuals and society at large. In this Review, we synthesize multidisciplinary meta-analyses of the individual and social-structural determinants of behaviour (for example, beliefs and norms, respectively) and the efficacy of behavioural change interventions that target them. We find that, across domains, interventions designed to change individual determinants can be ordered by increasing impact as those targeting knowledge, general skills, general attitudes, beliefs, emotions, behavioural skills, behavioural attitudes and habits. Interventions designed to change social-structural determinants can be ordered by increasing impact as legal and administrative sanctions; programmes that increase institutional trustworthiness; interventions to change injunctive norms; monitors and reminders; descriptive norm interventions; material incentives; social support provision; and policies that increase access to a particular behaviour. We find similar patterns for health and environmental behavioural change specifically. Thus, policymakers should focus on interventions that enable individuals to circumvent obstacles to enacting desirable behaviours rather than targeting salient but ineffective determinants of behaviour such as knowledge and beliefs. |
| https://www.nature.com/articles/s44159-024-00305-0 |
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Do you want to know more?
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Systemic Thinking
| Club of Rome |
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| https://www.clubofrome.org/ |
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| Earth4All |
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| Earth4All is an international initiative to accelerate the systems-change we need for an equitable future on a finite planet. Our analysis combines the best available science with new economic thinking. We found that the next ten years must see the fastest economic transformation in history if we want to steer humanity away from social and ecological catastrophe. |
| https://earth4all.life/ |
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| Systems Transformation Hub |
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| A pioneering partnership of organisations that helps bring systems thinking and acting to European policy-making |
| https://www.systemstransformationhub.org/#Home |
| https://www.wri.org |
| https://www.metabolic.nl/ |
| https://www.systemiq.earth/ |
| https://climatechampions.unfccc.int/ |
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| Systems Change Lab |
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| Systems Change Lab tracks more than 70 critical shifts needed to protect both people and the planet, assessing progress toward targets and identifying key enablers and barriers of change. Explore the site to determine the state of play across each system, monitor indicators of systems change and discover why we need a systemic approach to tackle the world’s challenges. |
| https://systemschangelab.org/ |
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| The Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies |
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| The Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies is an independent, non-profit think tank established in 1969. By building the capabilities necessary to address potential futures we help create a society fit to meet the challenges and grasp the opportunities we face. |
| https://cifs.dk/ |
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| Stockholm Resilience Centre |
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| Planetary boundaries |
| https://www.stockholmresilience.org/research/planetary-boundaries.html |
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| TIPC |
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| TIPC members and partners drive innovation for a sustainable future by spearheading a holistic and integrated approach to policymaking. We harness the power of systems thinking, recognising that innovation is a complex interplay of actors, components, and contexts within ecosystems. Our consortium brings together policymakers, communicators, researchers, and visionaries to revolutionise the way innovation policy is approached. |
| https://tipconsortium.net/ |
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| Deep Transitions |
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| Deep Transitions is an innovative interdisciplinary research project that strives to understand how the unsustainable systems our societies are built on emerged, and how they can be unmade. The project consists of two phases: Deep Transitions History and Deep Transitions Futures. |
| https://deeptransitions.net/ |
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Economic / Political Thinking
| WEF - Centre for the New Economy and Society |
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| The Centre for New Economy and Society is building a future where economies and societies work for everyone. Acting as a hub for thought leaders and innovators, our centre is committed to fostering widespread prosperity, resilient communities, and inclusive growth. |
| https://centres.weforum.org/centre-for-new-economy-and-society/home |
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| The World Business Council for Sustainable Development |
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| The World Business Council for Sustainable Development (WBCSD) brings together transformational organizations to form a global community that shifts the systems they work within towards a better future. Our members push the boundaries of what businesses can achieve by taking action to limit the climate crisis, restore nature and tackle inequality. So that all people can thrive in a way that’s sustainable for our planet – by 2050. |
| https://www.wbcsd.org/ |
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| Network for Business Sustainability |
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| We aim to improve business practice by facilitating knowledge sharing across an international community of business leaders, scholars, students and policy makers. With these stakeholders, we co-create high-quality content that enables practical action. Our content focuses on 6 critical sustainability themes, from climate change to social justice. |
| https://nbs.net/ |
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| Earth.org |
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| To affect societal change so that life can be made sustainable on this planet. To be a voice, a lifeline, a place of sanity in a world of increasing chaos. |
| https://earth.org/ |
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| Paul Schenderling |
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| (Dutch language) Hij adviseert, schrijft en spreekt over sociale en ecologische vraagstukken vanuit een economische invalshoek. |
| https://www.postgroei.nl/paul-schenderling/ |
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| Philea |
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| The Philea Virtual Library includes over 1,000 free-to-download publications from a range of organisations and publishers on the topics of philanthropy, the management of foundations and the areas they are involved in and support. |
| https://philea.issuelab.org |
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| The CHALLENGE of imbalance |
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| A platform on which to build a balanced world. You, I, and especially we, will have to do this, not “them”—by acting to find out what works, and networking to share this as widely as possible, to prompt our governments and businesses to do what is necessary |
| https://rebalancingsociety.org/ |
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| The Transformative Innovation Policy Consortium |
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| The Transformative Innovation Policy Consortium (TIPC) is a multi-country initiative dedicated to unlocking the power of science, technology and innovation to achieve socio-technical system change and a sustainable future. |
| https://tipconsortium.net/ |
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| Nesta |
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| The UK's innovation agency for social good. We design, test and scale new solutions to society’s biggest problems, changing millions of lives for the better. |
| https://www.nesta.org.uk/ |
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| EEA |
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| Achieving a sustainable Europe will require far-reaching societal change, engaging all areas of the economy and society. Faced with this complex governance challenge, Europe’s governments and societies are increasingly looking to foresight approaches to explore possible futures and what they mean for policy and action today. |
| https://www.eea.europa.eu/publications/scenarios-for-a-sustainable-europe-2050 |
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| Reuters Impact |
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| Reuters IMPACT is your go-to hub for high-stakes climate and sustainability conversations. We challenge global leaders with the hardest questions to drive real, actionable change. |
| https://plus.reuters.com/reuters-impact/p/1 |
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