Worldview: relevant future
Chapter 1 - Worldview
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Welcome to the 'Worldview: relevant future' page (the fourth inferring)
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In recent years we have come to understand better the forces that have shaped biological evolution over the course of time.
- Evolved purposiveness (teleonomy) in living systems themselves has been an important influence.
- Cooperative effects (synergies) of various kinds have also been influential.
- And the bioeconomics (functional costs and benefits) have been important constraints.
Now we are facing a mounting survival crisis that may determine the future of life on Earth. We need to make a major course change, utilizing our insights into these important influences
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Core ideas
What challenges do you face?
Climate
Europe is not just warming. It's the fastest-warming continent, with temperatures rising about twice as fast as the global average. This rapid pace is a cause for immediate concern. For 2023, economic losses are estimated at more than 13.4 billion euros.
| Content source |
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| Copernicus - 2024 |
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Inequality
The top 10% of the world's population controls nearly ¾ of the world's wealth, while the other half of the world's population is left with almost nothing. This stark wealth disparity should invoke a strong sense of empathy.
In line with the similarity principle, this can be extended between north and south and also between rich and poor within countries.
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| Worls Inequality Database - 2024 |
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The financial system and growth
"One of the most important problems in the field of finance, if not the single most important one, … is the effect that financial structure and development have on economic growth - (Goldsmith (1969)".
While there is a firm consensus that a well-functioning financial sector is a precondition for the efficient allocation of resources and the exploitation of an economy's growth potential, the economic literature needs to be more consensual on how and to what extent finance affects economic growth.
Emerging evidence suggests that finance matters for income distribution as it shapes the economic opportunities available to individuals. On the other hand, the development of the stock markets relative to banks does not significantly promote economic growth.
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Population ageing
Population ageing is an increasing median age because of declining fertility rates and rising life expectancy. Most countries have rising life expectancy and an ageing population, trends that emerged first in developed countries but are now seen in virtually all developing countries. That is the case for every country except the 18 countries designated as "demographic outliers" by the United Nations. The aged population is currently at its highest level in human history.
The UN predicts that the rate of population ageing in the 21st century will exceed that of the previous century. The number of people aged 60 years and over has tripled since 1950, reaching 600 million in 2000 and surpassing 700 million in 2006. The combined senior and geriatric population is projected to reach 2.1 billion by 2050.
Countries vary significantly in terms of the degree and pace of ageing, and the UN expects populations that began ageing later will have less time to adapt to its implications.
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| Wikipedia - 2024 |
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Deep dive
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Key take-aways from the deep dive
- The idea of 'homo economicus' is still mainstream
- There is growing homogeneity within civilizations and growing difference between civilizations. So we better not expect the world to become more and more ethically similar to Northwest Europe
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Where are we today
Current mainstream view in the Global North
In this part, I combine for you three concepts to better understand the current mainstream view of the Global North.
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Homo economicus
The term "economic man" was used for the first time in the late nineteenth century by critics of John Stuart Mill's work on political economy. Below is a passage from Mill's work that critics referred to:
Later in the same work, Mill stated that he was proposing "an arbitrary definition of man, as a being who inevitably does that by which he may obtain the greatest amount of necessaries, conveniences, and luxuries, with the smallest quantity of labour and physical self-denial with which they can be obtained." Adam Smith, in The Theory of Moral Sentiments, had claimed that individuals have sympathy for the well-being of others. On the other hand, in The Wealth of Nations, Smith wrote:
The early role of Homo Economicus within neoclassical theory was summarised to include a general objective of discovering laws and principles to accelerate further growth within the national economy and the welfare of ordinary citizens. These laws and principles were determined by two governing factors, natural and social. Economists in the late 19th century—such as Francis Edgeworth, William Stanley Jevons, Léon Walras, and Vilfredo Pareto—built mathematical models on these economic assumptions. In the 20th century, the rational choice theory of Lionel Robbins came to dominate mainstream economics. The term "economic man" then took on a more specific meaning: a person who acted rationally on complete knowledge out of self-interest and the desire for wealth. (1) |
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| (1) | Wikipedia - 2024 |
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Similarity
On the main worldview page you can read the following:
Robert Aumann explained in his Nobel Prize (Economy—2005) lecture how people, teams, organisations, businesses, etc., all exhibit the same properties regarding action, evaluation, and relevance in the world.
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Strategic action
On the life page you can read:
Genes control organisms for their own survival. Therefore they determine the physical and mental properties and the behaviour.
A gene-centric perspective is the only correct one, nicely stated by Robert Sapolsky in his book 'Behave' (2017):
| The chicken is the strategy of the egg to create more eggs. |
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Combining the three concepts described above leads us to:
- The organism is the strategy of the gene to create more genes
- The chicken is the strategy of the egg to create more eggs
- The business is the strategy of resources to create more resources
- The economy is the strategy of financial capital to create more financial capital
- The business is the strategy of resources to create more resources
- The chicken is the strategy of the egg to create more eggs
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Perhaps it was not a deliberate move by the 19th century economists, but it is a brilliant move to label the 'agents' of families, companies, economy, society, ... as homo economicus who is looking for self-interest. When 'the active agents execution' is aimed at selfishness, the 'supporter' and 'the ultimate beneficiary' will never be accused of more.
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Recent cultural history
In the 1990s, society widely expected that globalisation, the increasing cross-border movement of capital, goods, people and ideas, would make values, attitudes and beliefs more similar across countries.
That statement was central to the debate between Francis Fukuyama and Samuel Huntington at the end of the eighties. Fukuyama (the neoconservative movement view) expected convergence, so much so that, in time, the entire world, guided by the same values, would choose a market economy and representative democracy.
In contrast, Huntington predicted that countries of the same civilisation would become more similar while the differences between civilisations would increase, resulting in more significant conflict potential.
Fukuyama received applause; Huntington was maligned, especially from progressive quarters. He was even accused of racism because he saw profound and growing differences between civilisations.
As Huntington predicted, there is growing homogeneity within civilisations and growing differences between civilisations. So, we better not expect the world to become more and more ethically similar to Northwest Europe.
Worldwide, there is no convergence of values, but there is clear divergence. The values and attitudes of the different countries are drifting apart. The strongest divergence is observed for ethical issues (the permissibility of homosexuality, euthanasia, divorce, prostitution, abortion, and suicide) and for views on how children should best be raised (for example, emphasis on teaching obedience versus stimulating imagination). In short, 'conservative' and 'progressive' countries are growing further apart.
There are also major differences within Europe between 'progressive' countries such as Sweden, Norway, Switzerland and the Netherlands and 'conservative' countries such as Serbia, North Macedonia, Bulgaria, Moldova, Estonia, Ukraine, Russia, Romania and Bosnia and Herzegovina.
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| Worldwide divergence of values - Joshua Conrad Jackson & Danila Medvedev - Nature communications - 2024 |
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Personal position
Western Europe is often characterized by three key factors: a highly educated population, a favourable health status, and above-average life satisfaction. This satisfaction is a result of being in good health, having a solid education, and being content with various aspects of life such as living conditions, income, employment, social connections, and immediate environment.
The idea of self-reliance is on the rise: the government is withdrawing, and people have to keep their own pants on. But are you that self-reliant? If I have a legal conflict, I call a lawyer. If I'm not happy with my house, I'll call a real estate agent. If I had a child who couldn't keep up in class, I'd call someone who does tutoring. We save ourselves by outsourcing our problems.
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What science can tell you
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Personal
| M. Ratcliffe - What is a “sense of foreshortened future?” A phenomenological study of trauma, trust, and time - Front. Psychol. - 2014 |
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| Loss of a Meaningful Future
Projects, cares, and concerns are sustained interpersonally. Almost all goal-directed activities implicate other people in some way – one is asked to do things by others and for others, and one does so in collaboration with others. The integrity of one’s projects therefore depends on the integrity of those relations. Where there is pervasive uncertainty, where others cease to be dependable, where the world is unsafe and one’s own abilities are in doubt, projects collapse. It is not just that the person lacks something that is presupposed by the possibility of a specific project. What is missing is something that the intelligibility of projects in general depends upon. |
| https://www.frontiersin.org/journals/psychology/articles/10.3389/fpsyg.2014.01026/full#h5 |
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