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Understanding Base-rate neglect
|The base rate fallacy, also called base rate neglect or base rate bias, is a type of fallacy. If presented with related base rate information (i.e., general information on prevalence) and specific information (i.e., information pertaining only to a specific case), people tend to ignore the base rate in favor of the individuating information, rather than correctly integrating the two.
In experiments, people have been found to prefer individuating information over general information when the former is available. (1)
See also Bayes Theorem